Review of 2008 - Predictions for 2009

Eat My Hat

For 2008. (Accuracy of last year’s predictions marked out of ten).

1) Recession for the UK. Acknowledged by March, fairly serious by October. Pound almost level with Euro by the end of the year. House prices down 20-25%. Uncanny. House prices drop 17% but otherwise spot on. 9/10.

2) Close race for White House. Hillary will beat Obama but lose narrowly to McCain who will be dogged by poor health as President. McCain did run for the Republicans and the rest is, thankfully, horseshit. 3/10

3) Electronic tagging offered for your children (in case of kidnapping etc). Like dogs, prisoners and children will be the first to get the rice sized micro transmitters that one day (within two decades) everyone will have in the earlobes and which will double up as mobile phones/communication devices/ personal PCs. Tagging for kids was already on offer apparently according to Google, the rest will have to wait. 3/10

4) More weird weather – very cold weather hits Europe in the winter and more floods in UK. The canal here is frozen over, and it’s been like returning to ‘a crypt’ according to another expat gone home up north, but otherwise not that remarkable in Europe. Cyclone kills 100,000 in Burma although the news coverage is almost nonexistent, more hurricanes trash Cuba, another ‘ice storm’ winter in the US, Australia in sixth year of very serious drought. 6/10

5) Dubai has tallest tower in the world and shortest HCT conference on record. Didn’t need a crystal ball for that one, but it’s quite a sight: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burj_Dubai

No feedback on the HCT conference so I expect anyone trying to report on has been shot. 8/10

6) Britney Spears is committed. Andy Kershaw is released from prison and goes teetotal. She's back on the burgers and coke so watch this space. Kershaw is on the run from the police, practically living rough and drinking for England, so not yet. 1/10

7) Mugabi replaced as ZANU leader. (I can’t believe he’s still there) I still can’t believe he’s there. 0/10

8) Oil falls to 80 dollars as world recession hits. Vastly underestimated. It fell from 140 dollars to 40 dollars. If I had been a futures trader I’d be sitting in a mansion by now, doh! 8/10

9) Flares and handlebar moustaches are back. The spirit of 68 and a whiff of revolution in the air. No flares or moustaches yet, but Obama victory was a sign that the Reagan, Thatcher years are finally coming to an end. 5/10

10) Scotland moves closer to independence which will come within 5-8 years. I’d obviously run out of steam by this point. SNP have done well so yes, maybe. 5/10

Total = 48/100. Room for improvement.

Some more dull political predictions for 2009

1) As I write the Israeli army masses on the border of Gaza bombing one of the most densely populated areas in the world including mosques with ten killed in one today. That will obviously help ease tensions. No one will want to commit suicide by blowing themselves up in Israel anymore, especially as Gaza has giant walls around it, nobody can work, government buildings lie in rubble, there is hardly any water, food, electricity and they have done some hospital operations without anaesthetic. The lesson from this is the British should have sent fighter planes to bomb the Falls Road when they voted Sinn Fein, we should have walled all the Catholics in and starved them, cut off their water, shelled their churches… etc etc.

2) The Israelis are stupid enough to send troops into Gaza before the end of Bush’s term where they will inflame the situation beyond belief and probably sustain serious losses enough for ultra-hawk Netanyahu and Likud to win the election. After Bush finally hangs up his ten gallon hat and international reaction gets more hostile (including big demonstrations and UN protests) the Israeli army may have to stop acting like German troops outside the Warsaw Ghetto. It’s got so bad it can only get better, can’t it? A two state solution will be written off this year as unworkable with so many settlements having been built, especially with Likud in power. A one state solution with Israelis and Palestinians in some kind of government is probably the only way forward. As likely as Ian Paisley and Martin McGuiness smiling and getting on with running Ulster in some semblance of normality…

3) The first 100 days will show if Obama is all talk or not. I think because so much election money came from the grass root supporters he’ll be a surprisingly progressive president who will do something about Health Care, closing Guantanamo, signing Kyoto and partly greening the American economy and addressing unemployment and inequality which threatens to send America into another Depression. If he doesn’t, expect men to ride around on cars with running boards clutching machine guns and bootlegging whisky. Foreign policy will be more of a mess with Afghanistan doing to the US and Britain what it did to the USSR, unless a lot of money is spent buying up the opium poppy harvest and paying for tribal loyalty. Al Qaeda inspired attacks escalate as Bin Laden's body is recovered from a US strike on a remote mountain area in the badlands of Pakistan. Pakistan further destabilized and threatening to strike US forces on their border if attacks continue. Indian-Pakistani relations deteriorate.

4) Iraq held together this year not by the 'surge' but by big salaries given to the various factions will hold off from all out civil war as they are so united in getting the Americans out just now. The Israeli thing will preoccupy Obama who was smart to put Hillary in there as Secretary of State as she’ll take the stick when it unravels dramatically. Relations will Iran will get worse as attacks on Palestinians get to the stage where there are calls for foreign intervention.

5) US car manufacturer Chrysler goes bust. GM and Ford are forced into partial partnership and start

producing smaller less gas guzzling and electric cars. Research and development into hydrogen cars gets massive investment.

6) The pound and the dollar will weaken against the Euro as the US and UK pay for throwing everything at their banking crisis. Tourism to Britain booms as visitors from Benin and Senegal can afford to come and visit with African currency. A barrel full of pounds will buy an apple. Germany meanwhile has been craftily building its infrastructure, not having a housing bubble, speculating like drunk gamblers or throwing cash at their banks. They will slowly grow in power – Berlin is the city to watch. London will have a shabby Olympics and limp into the next decade with Boris Johnson tally-hoing at the head of the decrepit march oblivious to the capital's decline.

7) In the UK a close election will result in a hung parliament or a slim majority for Labour who will need the Liberals to survive.

8) Tensions with Russia reach a peak with gas and oil supplies used against former Soviet States and brinkmanship in Kaliningrad will be another early test for Obama.

9) Mugabi is kicked out – come on it has to be this year! This will then begin the recovery of the southern African region. The next decade will see Africa go into the kind of economic recovery that Asia experienced in the 1990s.

10) The Gulf Stream slows and cools as Arctic ice sheets melt at faster pace, bringing another cold winter in Britain. Expect winter markets on a frozen Thames within a few years. More hurricanes, tornadoes, cyclones. An earthquake hits Istanbul.

11) House prices drop another 10% before bottoming out. Some big building companies go bust alongside holiday firms and airlines such as Iberia.

12) While a bad year economically there will be hopeful political developments. The Israelis have sent troops in since I started writing this, but there will be a creeping realisation this year in Israel that military force cannot solve the problem. Current worship of the free market shifts towards more redistribution and sustainability, essential for the long term survival of the planet and, more importantly, capitalism.

So not all doom and gloom then. Enjoy 2009 and if you have any predictions or thoughts on these, leave a comment or email. Cheers!