November/December 2007

Halloween seems a million years ago - the first months of autumn are fabulous - smoky smells, candlelight, the nights' drawing in'. Jams, pickles, cider, homemade beer and rosehip wine. Confident that the winter won't be that bad or that long.




Happy days.

.....It’s more than a year and a half since we left the bright, warm sanctuary of the Emirates for the dark fridge-freezer known as England. Picture, if you will, a lonesome figure stamping his frost-bitten feet at 6am on Avoncliff station, coughing a lungful of icy steam, dressed from head to toe in charity clothes and cursing another late train. This miserable wretch tells you all you need to know about coming back: expect grinding poverty, inhuman weather and a dilapidated transport. infrastructure that is the laughing-stock of Europe.

You’d think we had emigrated to Eastern Europe in the 1970’s, except there’s more inane advertising, trilling mobile phones, soaps, porn, celebrity obsession and dumb American films. I know I’ve made some fairly rash comments about how great British telly is, but 18 months in and we’ve caught up with eleven years worth of repeats and the pleasures of Dog Borstal and Have I Got News for You are beginning to pall.

This winter, while much less rainy than the appalling summer and quite sunny at times, has also been bitterly cold some weeks. Then our house plunges into sub-zero temperatures the minute the central heating is off – so we switch it off for two hours and hop about in scarves until we can take it no more. For Christmas, Sarah kindly bought me royal blue thermal underwear and another for herself to make ‘working from home’ more bearable.

But on the bright side….

We have had a gas fire put installed in the living room so the children don’t have to cling to the radiator in the evenings. This made Christmas really cosy and we watched lots of rubbish and poisoned ourselves with chocolate, food and drink in an orange tinselly haze. And it was great having a real Christmas holiday and the excuse to over-indulge. On Boxing Day morning at the in-laws I walked miles into Savernake Forest with Nog in a desperate attempt to burn a few of the million calories of the previous days. We saw seven grey deer standing quietly in the shadows who then dashed off when they saw us. The countryside is still beautiful, even in winter, except at 7.45 in the morning when it is raining, windy and pitch black and Nog needs to do his business.

Workwise, Sarah is now doing three jobs – at Bath Uni, at Wiltshire College and writing for an ESP textbook. I’m working part-time at Bournemouth while trying to research which is not an easy balancing act. The pay for both of us is cack, but it’s fine because we have enough to eat and can take out any frustrations by screaming at the children.

We spent New Year in London with Sarah’s brother and sister and saw in 2008 playing parlour games and drinking wine. I disgraced myself by falling asleep on the sofa at ten minutes past midnight. It was impossible to shift my snoring bulk despite the combined efforts of the family so there I stayed until I woke up at 3am, alone, hungover and in the dark - covered in a blanket like a tramp under the arches. Altogether a delightful start to the year.

Other news? Tom is going sub-teenager: subtly intransigent, sarcastic and weird, or annoying, or both. Actually he’s great, but just tries to wear down those who oppose his desire for continuous self-gratification. It is a great burden being aspirational parents - we try to foist self-improving activities on our children rather than allow them 24 hour access to shoot-em-up Star Wars games and CBBC. Radio 3 blares out educationally as Isobel dresses her Bratz © doll in the latest prostitute outfit. After evening screenings they have to discuss Buster Keaton’s contribution to the silent comedy oeuvre before we can slump in front of a violent, sexist Bond film. Isobel enjoys doing a seductive dance to accompany the nude female silhouettes pirouetting on the barrel of a Walter PKK pistol during the credits. Isobel turned seven this week and we had a swimming pool party - very Al Ainesque (except Trowbridge pool isn't quite the Intercon).

Now to the embarrassing review of my predictions for 2007, most of which were wrong…

In 2007….

1) Iraq descends into full blown civil war. Militias fight army and police and British and US forces. Regional powers drawn in further as US and UK begin pull out, which will be completed in three years. Iraq is now a breeding ground for massive regional war within a decade involving Iran, Israel, Syria, Lebanon etc. This will come as soon as Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear power plant which could happen in 2007. No, if we are to believe the hype Iraq has got a bit better – but the last sentence is still likely in 2008. (0)

2) Castro dies and Cuba changes quickly towards becoming US `first choice for senior citizen dance classes, cigars and (within five years) prostitutes, crack and casinos. Your last chance to sample socialist paradise. South America builds coalitions with Africa, China etc against US interests. No, Castro is alive if not well. (0)

3) New Orleans hit by another hurricane and more damage to low lying areas drives away the last of the poor and the black. Real estate sharks buy up ruins and rebuild luxury accommodation and huge Dutch style tidal barriers are built for the wealthy WASPs who now make up the bulk of New Orleans. No. (o)

4) El Nino hammers Central America and Florida – hurricanes and mudslides cause havoc. Oil production hit badly in Gulf of Mexico – oil touches 100 dollars shortly before Wall Street ‘readjustment’ hits markets and oil price falls back to 70 dollars. Russia using oil and gas as strategic weapon for influence in Europe forces Britain to consider reopening coal mines. Look out for petrol from coal (1980s South African technology revisited). Russian and UK relations hit new low with tit-for-tat diplomatic explusions and some very threatening but funny insults from Putin about Gordon Brown. Yes on 100 dollars a barrel and Russia-Uk relations. (1/2)

5) US and UK debt catches up with us and house prices fall by 20% in three months. Unemployment rises as it dawns on everyone that we don’t produce anything in the UK anymore. The British companies who have outsourced production now outsource their management and HQs to tax free havens like Dubai, Singapore, China. The German economy (where they still make stuff) steadily grows and will be at the centre of power in a rag bag EU where Britain gets poorer by the year. Invest in pork belly. Grow vegetables in your garden. Not…..quite ….. yet. German economy is powering ahead –watch them this year. House prices have fallen but it will be 20% in 2008. (1/2)

6) Electronic books hit the market – Perspex sheets that can be folded in your pocket display print–style pages that rearrange as you change/download page. Like a PDF on plastic that doesn’t cause eye-strain. No.

7) Bombs in France indicate beginning of new Al Qaida European campaign. Brussels and Rome also targeted. Prominent British politician assassinated. No.

8) Blair suffers health problems and leaves with tail between his legs over Iraq and corruption allegations over party donations. Brown just as unpopular as Blair as everyone realises it is he who has been selling our last state assets all along. Labour support crumbles so badly it can’t muster enough party members to mount a decent election. Cameron wins in 2007/2008 by a narrow margin and is forced into coalition. The compromise is that the House of Lords becomes a directly elected (by proportional representation) second house rather than a cushy number for party donors. No on Blair’s health, yes on Brown’s popularity. Let’s see on Cameron, I still think he’ll lead a hung parliament or a narrow majority. (1/2)

9) As Nostradus predicted in the Fifth Night of Darkness a huge dragon shall descend in the East breathing fire and leprous fumes. Mel Gibson is booed at the Oscars. Kate Moss falls from a balcony at a party and breaks her back while her husband Pete Doherty goes to another party. Prince William whacks a photographer. No. (0)

10) A huge ice sheet drops into the ocean in Greenland and everyone realises we are really fucked. Britain starts emergency reforestation – and EU subsidies move from animals to trees. Every farmer has to plant five trees per acre. Aviation duty of 50 pounds in 2007 budget, 100 pounds in 2008 budget. The Green party proposes digging up non-essential roads and replacing cars with mules and dog carts. The slow return to British cottage industry and Medieval working practices begins. All feast days are holidays, 3 day working week (four hour days). Plastic shopping bags banned. Paperless office enforced, condoms recycled, candlelight across the UK as energy bills become unpayable. ITV stops stupid cheap gameshows under Grade and begins to bounce back. Madonna adopts a girl from China to complete her set and then divorces Guy Richie in 2008. Well, yes. Ice 8 times the size of the UK melted unexpectedly in the summer of 2007 way, way ahead of computer predictions. Energy bills have risen dramatically. ITV is bouncing back a bit. The rest is wishful thinking. (1/2)

= 2/10 rubbish!

For 2008.

1) Recession for the UK. Acknowledged by March, fairly serious by October. Pound almost level with Euro by the end of the year. House prices down 20-25%.

2) Close race for White House. Hillary will beat Obama but lose narrowly to McCain who will be dogged by poor health as President.

3) Electronic tagging offered for your children (in case of kidnapping etc). Like dogs, prisoners and children will be the first to get the rice sized micro transmitters that one day (within two decades) everyone will have in the earlobes and which will double up as mobile phones/communication devices/ personal PCs.

4) More wierd weather – very cold weather hits Europe in the winter and more floods in UK.

5) Dubai has tallest tower in the world and shortest HCT conference on record.

6) Britney Spears is committed. Andy Kershaw is released from prison and goes teetotal.

7) Mugabi replaced as ZANU leader. (I can’t believe he’s still there)

8) Oil falls to 80 dollars as world recession hits.

9) Flares and handlebar moustaches are back. The spirit of 68 and a whiff of revolution in the air.

10) Scotland moves closer to independence which will come within 5-8 years.

Post your predictions in comments below folks. Have a great 2008!