Blog 5

New Year was very quiet compared to Christmas. A friend who shall remain anonymous came over from the UAE for New Year's Eve with her son. We had a very pleasant evening drinking a couple of glasses of wine in a very dignified fashion until our friend, inspired by recently watching the new James Bond film, suggested I make some dry Martinis. Still suffering the lingering and noisesome effects of drinking many pints of Guinness in Ireland, I wisely avoided making any for myself, and was able to witness the degenerative effect this innocent-tasting beverage has on the human condition at first hand.

After a number of Martinis our friend declared a desire to smoke. Now as we have forsworn this vice with commendable and unbroken fortitude for almost three years we decided to retire to the delightful environs of our garage where I presented her with a large cigar that I was given at a cousin's wedding in Glasgow in the summer. There the dogs watched us with puzzled expressions as we drank champagne and saw in the New Year listening to Radio 1 on Tom's wind up radio and myself and Sarah giving our friend pitying looks and kindly advice on the dangers of smoking, whilst drinking delicious Teacher's whisky and ice. The children, alarmed for a moment at our apparent disappearance from the house joined us at midnight for some linked-armed, hogmannie-style celebrations.

All was quite well in the morning after a very long and punishing walk along the canal in the rain for a large vegetarian-style full English breakfast. Hooray for vegetarian food. Hooray for New Year's resolutions. Huzzah for dry Martinis.

As a footnote I now place my chilling predictions for 2007 which are preceded by an analysis of predictions I made for 2006 for some friends.....

Predictions for 2006 – 50% success rate

Some of these predictions are spookily accurate. I think the morphine I was given gave me visionary power so I’m going to roll on some of these predictions for 2007 (below).

In 2006….

1) The Republicans will continue to slide in popularity in the US and will lose the Senate and Congress to Democrats by a slim margin. Yes - I thank you. Bush will continue to make every wrong decision and, unless Republicans can swallow their Bible-belt racial bile and run Condoleeca Rice or Colin Powell against Hillary in 2007, we’re going to have another Clinton administration. That will be a good thing because after years of the most reactionary president since Hoover - Americans might be ready for some serious Roosevelt-style domestic reform and a semi-rational foreign policy. So in Europe eating McDonalds will be okay again. No sign of Condi expressing interest, but I predict the next president will be female, but not necessarily Hillary who is still widely despised. McCain will pull out with health problems. Gore will run as Vice President with Hillary. Watch Schwarzenegger for the election after this (2014?). That is funny and fucked up enough to happen. 10/10 (for predictions for 2006)

2) Blair will cling to power to the last minute and shit in the water for Brown. Cameron who is doing a Bush pre-election ‘honest bloke’ act will narrowly win 2007? election based on popular anti-authoritarian, anti-centralist policies and Brown will have to weep into his beer and rage against Blair out of power at the head of the wreckage of Labour. Nobody will care. Yes 10/10 (for 2006)

3) Iraq will continue to slide in slow motion towards a long civil war as occupation becomes more and more unpopular both in Iraq and in the US. Further torture scandals will make things worse for everyone. A slow, ragged retreat, semi-Vietnam style is on the cards. Attacks on oil tankers (not yet) and refineries in Iraq (yes), Saudi, other countries in the Middle East and possibly Europe and US will push oil prices back up around 80 in 2006 (yes they went to that price in June but have dropped back since) and on their way to 100 dollars a barrel for 2007/8. This will be the best thing that could happen to the world economy because it will force the pace of investment and energy efficiency. Cars on sale in 2010 will regularly do 100mpg. 9/10 (for 2006)

4) In Israel some better news as a newly progressive Labour (Labour yes, progressive no) party wins a big majority due to splits in Likud and Sharon’s rump party. Peace talks finally resume in earnest after years of shenanigans and with Labour no longer relying on nutcases in minority religious parties, settlement building – the biggest open sore in Arab-Israeli relations - will finally be halted. Slow moves towards the kind of agreement made in Switzerland two years ago between Israeli and Palestinian liberals as a blueprint for co-existence – pullout of West Bank, recognition of Palestine with Jerusalem as its capital, basic security guarantees for Israel. NO, no, no. Either that or more of the same shit Yes and the invasion of Lebanon - or worse still Israel bomb the nuclear power station in Iran leading to total chaos and war in the region. Still possible 5/10

5) Leftist governments in South America (yes more elections go left see link) will form powerful alliance with India and China against Europe and US in WTO. The age of ‘economic liberalisation’ (ie Europe and US get everything their way) grinds to a halt. More nachos on the menu, more samba in the nightclubs. China slowly start to replace al Quaida as the bad guys. Castro will pop his clogs (nearly) and whores and casinos will return to Havana with the Cuban émigrés. Cuba becomes a major American tourist attraction again and Havana cigars are bigger than ever, hombre. A Spanish fast food chain selling – wine and tapas replaces Pizza Hut on every British High Street. Ok, no that’s obviously bullshit. The British continue to prefer giant greasy pizzas with plastic cheese, or kebabs made from two week old compressed donkey meat eaten next to piles of vomit on cold sidewalks. 7/10

6) China prepares to send a man to the moon for 2010. Europe sends Beagle Two and it survives this time. US dreams of sending a man to Mars are quietly shelved, but they consider sending a monkey with a banana dispenser. Mugabe is kicked out of power by a population tired of being starved by a madman. (hmm, is that monkey claws I can feel scraping against my back passage?) It is, because they are still talking about Mars and Mugabe is still in power 0/10

7) People get very angry about being forced to buy digital TVs for 2008 shutdown of analogue transmission. Problem of disposing of millions of old TVs dawns on government. Threatened with a petrol pump style uprising by angry pensioners and poor people (three quarters of Britain) mad about having to pay 500 pounds for new telly to watch Eastenders, the government extends the deadline by five years making it the next government’s problem. It’s been moved to 2012 – I was one year out Computerised underpants are new erotic novelty. Only in our house 9/10

8) More extreme weather– another record hurricane season knackers Florida. Europe has scorching summer – very severe drought and heat wave in southern Europe, forest fires, spring flooding and more thick snow in UK. White Chistmas and we freeze our nuts off in icy Bradford-on-Avon. Big earthquake hits California. Bird flu kills 100,000 in Asia and thousands in Europe scaring the shit out of everyone. Mass vaccination led by WHO stops the disease killing many more. No No No and No 0/10

9) Rap dies just as suddenly as dance music did. Everyone suddenly realises that having a gold ringed index finger pointed in your face by grown men with trousers halfway down their bum crack is annoying. A new wave of music called White Gangster riffs on music from the 20s and 30s. Sharp suits, fedoras and spats make a comeback. You find yourself most likely to be beaten up by men in shiny top hats. Pearls and hipflasks replace iPods as the must-have accessories. I wish 0/10

10) Anthony Hopkins, Gary Oldman, Helena-Bohham Carter and Daniel Day Lewis line up to co-produce and star in my multi-million dollar film script about the last years of Friedrich Nietzsche’s life. I travel around southern Germany, the Swiss Alps and Turin as director with Sophia Coppolla as assistant and her father cooking Italian food for us in the evening. I then team up with Scorcese in New York to edit the film and discuss future projects. It’s distributed by Miramax and goes on to win four Golden Globes and three Oscars – for Oldman, Scorcese (his first) and me. I return to Europe a multi-millionaire where I shuttle between southern France, MonteCarlo and Barcelona in the winter and UK in the summer writing, making films and occasionally temping in rough secondary schools around Bristol. ..Excuse me I’m still a little giddy after my operation (third on this blasted elbow). I was being heavily medicated when I wrote this. 0/10 Elbow now still crooked but no more ops needed apparently – huzzah!

In 2007….

1) Iraq descends into full blown civil war. Militias fight army and police and British and US forces. Regional powers drawn in further as US and UK begin pull out, which will be completed in three years. Iraq is now a breeding ground for massive regional war within a decade involving Iran, Israel, Syria, Lebanon etc. This will come as soon as Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear power plant which could happen in 2007.

2) Castro dies and Cuba changes quickly towards becoming US `first choice for senior citizen dance classes, cigars and (within five years) prostitutes, crack and casinos. Your last chance to sample socialist paradise. South America builds coalitions with Africa, China etc against US interests.

3) New Orleans hit by another hurricane and more damage to low lying areas drives away the last of the poor and the black. Real estate sharks buy up ruins and rebuild luxury accommodation and huge Dutch style tidal barriers are built for the wealthy WASPs who now make up the bulk of New Orleans.

4) El Nino hammers Central America and Florida – hurricanes and mudslides cause havoc. Oil production hit badly in Gulf of Mexico – oil touches 100 dollars shortly before Wall Street ‘readjustment’ hits markets and oil price falls back to 70 dollars. Russia using oil and gas as strategic weapon for influence in Europe forces Britain to consider reopening coal mines. Look out for petrol from coal (1980s South African technology revisited). Russian and UK relations hit new low with tit-for-tat diplomatic explusions and some very threatening but funny insults from Putin about Gordon Brown.

5) US and UK debt catches up with us and house prices fall by 20% in three months. Unemployment rises as it dawns on everyone that we don’t produce anything in the UK anymore. The British companies who have outsourced production now outsource their management and HQs to tax free havens like Dubai, Singapore, China. The German economy (where they still make stuff) steadily grows and will be at the centre of power in a rag bag EU where Britain gets poorer by the year. Invest in pork belly. Grow vegetables in your garden.

6) Electronic books hit the market – Perspex sheets that can be folded in your pocket display print–style pages that rearrange as you change/download page. Like a PDF on plastic that doesn’t cause eye-strain.

7) Bombs in France indicate beginning of new Al Qaida European campaign. Brussels and Rome also targeted. Prominent British politician assassinated.

8) Blair suffers health problems and leaves with tail between his legs over Iraq and corruption allegations over party donations. Brown just as unpopular as Blair as everyone realises it is he who has been selling our last state assets all along. Labour support crumbles so badly it can’t muster enough party members to mount a decent election. Cameron wins in 2007/2008 by a narrow margin and is forced into coalition. The compromise is that the House of Lords becomes a directly elected (by proportional representation) second house rather than a cushy number for party donors.

9) As Nostradus predicted in the Fifth Night of Darkness a huge dragon shall descend in the East breathing fire and leprous fumes. Mel Gibson is booed at the Oscars. Kate Moss falls from a balcony at a party and breaks her back while her husband Pete Doherty goes to another party. Prince William whacks a photographer.

10) A huge ice sheet drops into the ocean in Greenland and everyone realises we are really fucked. Britain starts emergency reforestation – and EU subsidies move from animals to trees. Every farmer has to plant five trees per acre. Aviation duty of 50 pounds in 2007 budget, 100 pounds in 2008 budget. The Green party proposes digging up non-essential roads and replacing cars with mules and dog carts. The slow return to British cottage industry and Medieval working practices begins. All feast days are holidays, 3 day working week (four hour days). Plastic shopping bags banned. Paperless office enforced, condoms recycled, candlelight across the UK as energy bills become unpayable. ITV stops stupid cheap gameshows under Grade and begins to bounce back. Madonna adopts a girl from China to complete her set and then divorces Guy Richie in 2008.

Now come on folks stump up those predictions…….